World Cup xG Lab
TeamsPlayersModelCoverage
StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model and shot-location views. FBref adds recent league-form context. Understat adds club xG context. DataMB adds 25/26 percentile scouting profiles. This dashboard is not a guaranteed 2026 World Cup prediction model.
HK

England

Harry Kane

ForwardStrong evidence

Bayern Munich - Bundesliga

62 past sample shotsPercentile profileLeague formClub xGExperimental xG check

Data read

Some evidence

When the historical sample is weak, use recent club and league context to understand role, volume, and form.

Player summary

Harry Kane has a usable historical shot sample.

In the available historical sample, Harry Kane took 62 shots. xG estimates how many goals those chances were usually worth. The model estimated those shots were worth about 14.69 goals, and Harry Kane scored 17.

He scored about 2.3 more goals than expected from the chances in this sample. The average shot was worth about 0.237 xG, or roughly a 24% chance of becoming a goal. Recent club and scouting context is also available from percentile scouting profile (DataMB), recent league form (FBref), club xG context (Understat), experimental xG check.

Takeaway: use this as a combined historical plus club-context profile, not as a guaranteed 2026 World Cup projection.

Past sample shots

62

StatsBomb open-data matches

StatsBomb

xG in available past matches

14.69

Not a 2026 forecast

StatsBomb

Goals

17

Goals in covered matches

StatsBomb

Scoring vs expected

2.31

Goals minus expected goals estimate

StatsBomb

Season

25/26

External percentile layer

Template

strikers

Comparison group

Minutes

64

Where available

Shots

639

Recent club/league rows pulled

Goals

160

Recent league form

Minutes

12,817

Where available

Club shots

430

Understat rows

Club xG

80.31

Context only

Club goals

88

Covered seasons

Modeled shots

1,300

Understat shot rows

Experimental xG

188.15

Research layer only

High-xG shots

286

Modeled Understat chances

  • - Player data describes past available samples and club context, not a 2026 World Cup forecast.
  • - StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model; recent league form, club xG, and percentile profiles are context layers.
  • - Small shot samples can make xG and finishing numbers noisy.
  • - Missing source matches can come from league coverage or player-name differences.
StatsBomb

Past Chance Quality

62 shots

The model estimated 14.69 goals from these shots; actual goals: 17. 2018-06-18 to 2024-07-14.

DataMB

Percentile Scouting Profile

64 min

strikers percentile context.

FBref

Recent League Form

639 shots

Aggregate club/league form where pulled.

Understat

Club xG Context

80.31 xG

Club xG context from covered leagues.

Understat

Experimental xG Check

188.15 xG

1,300 modeled Understat shots. Research layer only.

Overview

This profile separates historical shot-quality evidence from recent club context. It avoids treating a small StatsBomb sample as a complete player forecast.

Scoring vs expected

2.31

Goals minus expected goals estimate

Average shot quality

0.237

Roughly how dangerous each shot was on average.

Open-data sample range

2018-06-18 to 2024-07-14

How to read this dashboard

StatsBomb

Past shot samples used by the expected-goals model. Not a 2026 prediction.

DataMB

25/26 percentile scouting profiles. Percentiles are not raw stats and are not model inputs.

FBref

Recent club and league form context. Not used by the trained expected-goals model.

Understat

Club expected-goals context from covered leagues, plus a separate experimental xG check where clearly labeled.