World Cup xG Lab
TeamsPlayersModelCoverage
StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model and shot-location views. FBref adds recent league-form context. Understat adds club xG context. DataMB adds 25/26 percentile scouting profiles. This dashboard is not a guaranteed 2026 World Cup prediction model.
MS

Austria

Marcel Sabitzer

MidfielderSome evidence

Borussia Dortmund - Bundesliga

23 past sample shotsPercentile profileLeague formClub xGExperimental xG check

Data read

Limited evidence

When the historical sample is weak, use recent club and league context to understand role, volume, and form.

Player summary

Marcel Sabitzer has a usable historical shot sample.

In the available historical sample, Marcel Sabitzer took 23 shots. xG estimates how many goals those chances were usually worth. The model estimated those shots were worth about 1.51 goals, and Marcel Sabitzer scored 1.

He scored roughly in line with what the model expected from the chances in this sample. The average shot was worth about 0.066 xG, or roughly a 7% chance of becoming a goal. Recent club and scouting context is also available from percentile scouting profile (DataMB), recent league form (FBref), club xG context (Understat), experimental xG check.

Takeaway: use this as a combined historical plus club-context profile, not as a guaranteed 2026 World Cup projection.

Past sample shots

23

StatsBomb open-data matches

StatsBomb

xG in available past matches

1.51

Not a 2026 forecast

StatsBomb

Goals

1

Goals in covered matches

StatsBomb

Scoring vs expected

-0.51

Goals minus expected goals estimate

StatsBomb

Season

25/26

External percentile layer

Template

midfielders

Comparison group

Minutes

1,988

Where available

Shots

156

Recent club/league rows pulled

Goals

11

Recent league form

Minutes

8,971

Where available

Club shots

79

Understat rows

Club xG

6.27

Context only

Club goals

5

Covered seasons

Modeled shots

429

Understat shot rows

Experimental xG

38.25

Research layer only

High-xG shots

34

Modeled Understat chances

  • - Player data describes past available samples and club context, not a 2026 World Cup forecast.
  • - StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model; recent league form, club xG, and percentile profiles are context layers.
  • - Small shot samples can make xG and finishing numbers noisy.
  • - Missing source matches can come from league coverage or player-name differences.
StatsBomb

Past Chance Quality

23 shots

The model estimated 1.51 goals from these shots; actual goals: 1. 2021-06-13 to 2024-07-02.

DataMB

Percentile Scouting Profile

1,988 min

midfielders percentile context.

FBref

Recent League Form

156 shots

Aggregate club/league form where pulled.

Understat

Club xG Context

6.27 xG

Club xG context from covered leagues.

Understat

Experimental xG Check

38.25 xG

429 modeled Understat shots. Research layer only.

Overview

This profile separates historical shot-quality evidence from recent club context. It avoids treating a small StatsBomb sample as a complete player forecast.

Scoring vs expected

-0.51

Goals minus expected goals estimate

Average shot quality

0.066

Roughly how dangerous each shot was on average.

Open-data sample range

2021-06-13 to 2024-07-02

How to read this dashboard

StatsBomb

Past shot samples used by the expected-goals model. Not a 2026 prediction.

DataMB

25/26 percentile scouting profiles. Percentiles are not raw stats and are not model inputs.

FBref

Recent club and league form context. Not used by the trained expected-goals model.

Understat

Club expected-goals context from covered leagues, plus a separate experimental xG check where clearly labeled.