World Cup xG Lab
TeamsPlayersModelCoverage
StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model and shot-location views. FBref adds recent league-form context. Understat adds club xG context. DataMB adds 25/26 percentile scouting profiles. This dashboard is not a guaranteed 2026 World Cup prediction model.
MA

Austria

Marko Arnautovic

ForwardLimited evidence

Red Star Belgrade - Serbian SuperLiga

12 past sample shotsLeague formClub xGExperimental xG check

Data read

Limited evidence

When the historical sample is weak, use recent club and league context to understand role, volume, and form.

Player summary

Marko Arnautovic has limited historical shot evidence.

This player has only 12 historical shots in the dashboard, so the expected-goals model has limited evidence.

Recent club, league, and scouting context from recent league form (FBref), club xG context (Understat), experimental xG check can still help describe their current role and shooting volume where available.

Takeaway: this player page is more useful for scouting context than model-based conclusions.

Limited historical shot sample

Small historical shot sample: use the club, league, and percentile context below to better understand recent player form.

Past sample shots

12

StatsBomb open-data matches

StatsBomb

xG in available past matches

2.06

Not a 2026 forecast

StatsBomb

Goals

2

Goals in covered matches

StatsBomb

Scoring vs expected

-0.06

Goals minus expected goals estimate

StatsBomb

Shots

70

Recent club/league rows pulled

Goals

20

Recent league form

Minutes

2,980

Where available

Club shots

141

Understat rows

Club xG

30.46

Context only

Club goals

29

Covered seasons

Modeled shots

446

Understat shot rows

Experimental xG

67.75

Research layer only

High-xG shots

102

Modeled Understat chances

  • - Player data describes past available samples and club context, not a 2026 World Cup forecast.
  • - StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model; recent league form, club xG, and percentile profiles are context layers.
  • - Small shot samples can make xG and finishing numbers noisy.
  • - Missing source matches can come from league coverage or player-name differences.
StatsBomb

Past Chance Quality

12 shots

The model estimated 2.06 goals from these shots; actual goals: 2. 2021-06-13 to 2024-07-02.

FBref

Recent League Form

70 shots

Aggregate club/league form where pulled.

Understat

Club xG Context

30.46 xG

Club xG context from covered leagues.

Understat

Experimental xG Check

67.75 xG

446 modeled Understat shots. Research layer only.

Overview

This profile separates historical shot-quality evidence from recent club context. It avoids treating a small StatsBomb sample as a complete player forecast.

Scoring vs expected

-0.06

Goals minus expected goals estimate

Average shot quality

0.172

Roughly how dangerous each shot was on average.

Open-data sample range

2021-06-13 to 2024-07-02

How to read this dashboard

StatsBomb

Past shot samples used by the expected-goals model. Not a 2026 prediction.

DataMB

25/26 percentile scouting profiles. Percentiles are not raw stats and are not model inputs.

FBref

Recent club and league form context. Not used by the trained expected-goals model.

Understat

Club expected-goals context from covered leagues, plus a separate experimental xG check where clearly labeled.