World Cup xG Lab
TeamsPlayersModelCoverage
StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model and shot-location views. FBref adds recent league-form context. Understat adds club xG context. DataMB adds 25/26 percentile scouting profiles. This dashboard is not a guaranteed 2026 World Cup prediction model.
MK

Croatia

Mateo Kovacic

MidfielderLimited evidence

Manchester City - Premier League

18 past sample shotsPercentile profileLeague formClub xGExperimental xG check

Data read

Limited evidence

When the historical sample is weak, use recent club and league context to understand role, volume, and form.

Player summary

Mateo Kovacic has limited historical shot evidence.

This player has only 18 historical shots in the dashboard, so the expected-goals model has limited evidence.

Recent club, league, and scouting context from percentile scouting profile (DataMB), recent league form (FBref), club xG context (Understat), experimental xG check can still help describe their current role and shooting volume where available.

Takeaway: this player page is more useful for scouting context than model-based conclusions.

Limited historical shot sample

Small historical shot sample: use the club, league, and percentile context below to better understand recent player form.

Past sample shots

18

StatsBomb open-data matches

StatsBomb

xG in available past matches

1.79

Not a 2026 forecast

StatsBomb

Goals

0

Goals in covered matches

StatsBomb

Scoring vs expected

-1.79

Goals minus expected goals estimate

StatsBomb

Season

25/26

External percentile layer

Template

midfielders

Comparison group

Minutes

2,383

Where available

Shots

136

Recent club/league rows pulled

Goals

14

Recent league form

Minutes

7,628

Where available

Club shots

75

Understat rows

Club xG

4.76

Context only

Club goals

5

Covered seasons

Modeled shots

213

Understat shot rows

Experimental xG

15.70

Research layer only

High-xG shots

16

Modeled Understat chances

  • - Player data describes past available samples and club context, not a 2026 World Cup forecast.
  • - StatsBomb powers the past chance-quality model; recent league form, club xG, and percentile profiles are context layers.
  • - Small shot samples can make xG and finishing numbers noisy.
  • - Missing source matches can come from league coverage or player-name differences.
StatsBomb

Past Chance Quality

18 shots

The model estimated 1.79 goals from these shots; actual goals: 0. 2018-06-16 to 2024-06-19.

DataMB

Percentile Scouting Profile

2,383 min

midfielders percentile context.

FBref

Recent League Form

136 shots

Aggregate club/league form where pulled.

Understat

Club xG Context

4.76 xG

Club xG context from covered leagues.

Understat

Experimental xG Check

15.70 xG

213 modeled Understat shots. Research layer only.

Overview

This profile separates historical shot-quality evidence from recent club context. It avoids treating a small StatsBomb sample as a complete player forecast.

Scoring vs expected

-1.79

Goals minus expected goals estimate

Average shot quality

0.099

Roughly how dangerous each shot was on average.

Open-data sample range

2018-06-16 to 2024-06-19

How to read this dashboard

StatsBomb

Past shot samples used by the expected-goals model. Not a 2026 prediction.

DataMB

25/26 percentile scouting profiles. Percentiles are not raw stats and are not model inputs.

FBref

Recent club and league form context. Not used by the trained expected-goals model.

Understat

Club expected-goals context from covered leagues, plus a separate experimental xG check where clearly labeled.